Jump to content

Welcome to Card Game DB
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

Star Wars Microchat- strategy, thoughts, musings

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply
125 replies to this topic

#121
yodaman

yodaman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2741 posts

Hey Kennedyhawk,

 

Seems like the three examples you gave are all pretty similar. 

 

If you have 2 of any objective set in your deck, and haven't buried one then the probability of flipping it next is:

 

2/6 = 1/3 or 33% if only 10 objectives

2/7 = 28.6% if you have 11

2/8 = 1/4 or 25 % if you have 12

 

If you buried 1 of the 2, then the probability of flipping it next is:

 

1/6 = 16.7% if only 10 objectives

1/7 = 14.3% if you have 11

1/8 = 12.5% if you have 12.

 

For all those cases every time you flip an objective and it's not the one you're looking for, to find the new probability, decrease the denominator by 1.  So if you started with 10, didn't bury one of the 2 and the next one you flip isn't 1 of the two either, the probability of flipping it the next time is 2/5 or 40%, etc..


  • SeeThreebilbo likes this

#122
Boreas

Boreas

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 951 posts

But it doesn't really matter since you didn't correct my math, just told me I was wrong, so I'm going to keep assuming its accurate. Just join the line of all the haters.

 

I'm sorry for being rude, didn't have time yesterday to correct your math. You were wrong when you wrote:  'If the card is a 2-of in the objective set, you essentially double it'.

 

So here are probabilities of drawing particular card on your first turn including mulligan and discarding one card during draw phase:

 

When you have 1 copy of that card in your deck:

 

24.32% - 10 sets

22.2479% - 11 sets

20.50% - 12 sets

 

When you have 2 copies of that card in your deck:

 

43.0745% - 10 sets

39.8461% - 11 sets

37.0577% - 12 sets

 

When you have 3 copies of that card in your deck:

 

57.4541% - 10 sets

53.7014% - 11 sets

50.3796% - 12 sets

 

When you have 4 copies of that card in your deck:

 

68.4132% - 10 sets

64.5569% - 11 sets

61.0551% - 12 sets

 

When you have 6 resource cards in your deck, probability of drawing minimum 1 resource card:

 

82.9573% - 10 sets

79.5809% - 11 sets

76.3434% - 12 sets

 

When you have 8 resource cards in your deck, probability of drawing minimum 1 resource card:

 

91.0837% - 10 sets

88.5208% - 11 sets

85.9133% - 12 sets


  • yodaman likes this

#123
Jarrett

Jarrett

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 750 posts

I'm sorry for being rude, didn't have time yesterday to correct your math. You were wrong when you wrote:  'If the card is a 2-of in the objective set, you essentially double it'.

 

So here are probabilities of drawing particular card on your first turn including mulligan and discarding one card during draw phase:

 

When you have 1 copy of that card in your deck:

 

24.32% - 10 sets

22.2479% - 11 sets

20.50% - 12 sets

 

When you have 2 copies of that card in your deck:

 

43.0745% - 10 sets

39.8461% - 11 sets

37.0577% - 12 sets

 

When you have 3 copies of that card in your deck:

 

57.4541% - 10 sets

53.7014% - 11 sets

50.3796% - 12 sets

 

When you have 4 copies of that card in your deck:

 

68.4132% - 10 sets

64.5569% - 11 sets

61.0551% - 12 sets

 

When you have 6 resource cards in your deck, probability of drawing minimum 1 resource card:

 

82.9573% - 10 sets

79.5809% - 11 sets

76.3434% - 12 sets

 

When you have 8 resource cards in your deck, probability of drawing minimum 1 resource card:

 

91.0837% - 10 sets

88.5208% - 11 sets

85.9133% - 12 sets

 

It's ok. That was in reference to drawing 12 cards by turn 3 with 2 copies in the deck, not drawing for the opening hand. 'Doubling it' was more of a reference to I didn't want to write out the exact numbers again on my phone (hence I said 48% to 40%). Thanks for the numbers though.



#124
Boreas

Boreas

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 951 posts

I know what you were counting. But, when you have x% chance of drawing a card, then you don't have 2x% chance when you have 2 copies of that card in your deck. You know, when you have 2 copies of one card in your 50 card deck, then you do not have 100% chance of drawing one when you draw half of your deck.



#125
yodaman

yodaman

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2741 posts

@Boreas - thanks for including those extra computations.  I didn't include the mulligan aspect in mine since it wasn't brought up initially, but it's certainly an important thing to consider since it affects the probabilities.



#126
SeeThreebilbo

SeeThreebilbo

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1819 posts

This is really helpful for me, since I'm not really a math guy.  Thanks!

 

All the same, I'll be throwing holy water at the numbers on principle.


  • yodaman and GroggyGolem like this