May I ask for some stats clarification since I'm a humanities person and you know...stats aren't my strong suit?
So 18.5% of all the decks so far have been Lannister.
Yet, 24.6% of all the decks that make the cut have been Lannister.
It is this data that leads to Lannister having the highest qualification ratio, right? What this says is that Lannisters make the cut more than they should, right?
But then, that last chart says that only 10% of the winners have been Lannister.
So...that what do those three sets of percentages mean for Lannisters?
The Targaryens seem consistent in all three charts: @20% play, @20% make the cut, @20% win.
The Baratheons seem are @17% play and 17% make the cut...but then a whopping 35% win.
I can make up ideas about what I think these percentages mean...but I'd rather a person who understands the statistics explain an analysis of these numbers to me. Because I'd hate to come to poor conclusions because there is some secret stat thing I don't know.
So...stat people? How do you analyze these stats and what conclusions are you drawing?
That's the beauty of statistics; you can pretty much use them the way you want to.
First off: representation. We see that Targaryen is quite popular, and that not that many people believe Greyjoy is the best way to go.
Then we look at the cut. The popular Targs are quite even here, 19 % vs. 20 % overall. This means that they are performing as they "should", considering their overall representation. Also Martells and Greyjoys are as they "should" be, considering nothing but the overall representation. The diversity comes from the houses Stark and Lannister. Very few Stark players make the cut, while a lot of the Lannister players do so.
I believe we can trace this to two things: what players believe
is the best house, and what actually
is the stronger house. A decent amount of the player base seem to think House Stark is a good choice (this may also be due to personal preferences), but not that many of them make the cut, probably meaning that the house is weaker (or the players choosing that house are) than players think. The opposite goes for Lannister.
When you look at the winners ratios, keep in mind the amount of data points here is significantly smaller. Meaning the basis to draw conclusions is weaker. But still a couple of things is interesting, as you pointed out: House Baratheon has an enormous percentage of winners! What does that mean? There may of course be several reasons. The players playing House Baratheon are better, more capable of winning the games also after the cut; Baratheon has good match-ups against typical oppositions in the cut; or simply that they have some decks within the house that are simply stronger than most, but that not all Baratheon players play said deck.
Another interesting thing about the winners stats is that Lannister bumps down to 10 % from their high 24,6 % in the cut. That may be because they have a lot of decks that are good, but maybe they are not quite the strongest of them all.
Note again that I think the most important stat is percentage making the cut, and the qualification ratios between the houses.
These are all my takes on the house stats, and not any kind of absolute truth. Hope it helped you a little bit at least.