195 replies to this topic

[Bomb]

I've been hunting down the prevalence of Harrenhals in some tournament's top cuts (So far, 13/16 reporting from Gencon, 16/16 from Battle of Blackwater Bay, 6/8 from Canadian Nationals).

From these, compiled, I have 0.95 Harrenhals per deck in the cut.

 

Are the Annals not correct?  Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are counting, but I counted 6 decks in the top 16 without Harrenhal.

[scantrell24]

That's copies of Harrenhal. Some decks had more than 1.

[istaril]

Yeah. Adding in the full top 32 for Gencon (to expand the analysis), the numbers stay at around the same; 0.94 copies/deck on average.

[Bomb]

That's copies of Harrenhal. Some decks had more than 1.

 

I asked because I counted 18 copies of Harrenhal in the top 16.  I must not be looking at the right statistics he is using because I know Alex is detail oriented and a much better statistician than me.  I also haven't slept well the last few days, so I'm off on a lot of stuff right now. 

[istaril]

I asked because I counted 18 copies of Harrenhal in the top 16.  I must not be looking at the right statistics he is using because I know Alex is detail oriented and a much better statistician than me.  I also haven't slept well the last few days, so I'm off on a lot of stuff right. 

 

 

You're right, but the average I was listing was over Gencon (18/16), Can Nationals (5/6) and Blackwater (18/16), before I had the complete stats for Gencon top 16 - I was missing 3 decks, some of which clearly had Harrenhals!

 

Now that number is up to 1.079/deck (cuts across all three tourneys), but expanding it to include the top 32 at Gencon (10/16) (since I have that data) reduces that average to 0.94.

 

I expect to have the last two can nationals harrenhal counts tonight.

 

Edit: Got the last two out of Can nationals. No Harrenhals for either.

[scantrell24]

Hey Hynes,

 

I've been thinking lately about trying to design something for recording individual games, not just tournament results.

 

In March of 2013 I used a Google form to create a basic database that resulted in some useful information.

 

However, it'd be great if we could take it one step further. Ideally there'd be a way to input game results (winning and losing H/A/R) and then cross-tabulate the results. 

 

For example, I want to look at all games with Meera Reed and see her win/lose percentages against each House. Or maybe I want to look at Greyjoy decks and see their win/lose percentages against each Agenda. 

 

Is that possible? I'm hoping there's already a program that can do it (I know Netrunner gets data from OCTGN games), but if not maybe we can create one. 

 

The other obstacle would of course be soliciting widespread community involvement. 

[istaril]

All of that's possible, and really, not all that technically challenging... it's just difficult to get community involvement on a large enough scale to make fine questions, like "How does this HAR combination fare against this one", unless they're really dominating the metagame. Futhermore, it's hard to rank data; for instance, if I really wanted a 'meaningful' comparison of head to head matches, I'd limit myself to matches in the cut (where every game is single elim, everything is on the line, and players are already demonstrably high-calibre).

 

The trouble, of course, is that this cuts our datapoints down to roughly a quarter of what I have in the Annals, so it's very hard, once all the data is there, to answer any specific questions about any given deck type there.

 

Your best bet would be to pull in data from some source like OCTGN, and I know there was talk of this previously. You could potentially coordinate with tasslehoff to incorporate a 'report match' query when leaving the game. Once the data is collected, even if it's just H/A/R (W/L) vs H/A/R, something as simple as a spreadsheet like the Annals could potentially store the data for public use, and answer 5-10 choice questions that are relevant to the meta. Making one where people can choose there own questions (Does stark N/A fare better against lanni pbtt if it uses meera or crossing)... that requires a little more power than google docs can provide.

[scantrell24]

Interesting. Thanks for the reply.

 

I've been keeping track of my own games in a spreadsheet, but that's only 5-10 games a week, so it's hard to draw any conclusions from such a small amount of data.

 

I've thought about forming a group of experienced players who are willing to report the results of their games. That way the results only include tier 1 or 1.5 decks with strong pilots. The data would of course be available to everyone, but the ability to submit results would be invitation-only. 

 

However, there are still other potential issues. If play mistakes influence the outcome of the game, should that game be recorded? What if there's an imbalanced setup (something like 6 cards against 2)?

 

I'll think it over some more.

[uBaHoB]

Just updated the Results from the Bulgarian Nationals.

[BaraBob]

The King in the North results from Edinburgh are now updated.

[JohnyNFullEffect]

A Motor City Besieged Detroit Michigan Tournament results updated on Input 1.

[istaril]

A Motor City Besieged Detroit Michigan Tournament results updated on Input 1.

 

Awesome, I just recorded our cast and had mentioned not knowing the results and apologizing for not promoting the event (for some reason I had it for next weekin my calendar. Thanks for the info!

[istaril]

I have not yet prepared Annals for 5.3.1 - sadly, I just don't have the time. 

 

I should have it up by the time the new FAQ takes effect (Monday the 20th), but in the meantime if your tournament is using the new FAQ, please enter it anyway (manually entering Bran or WWW as restricted), and change the FAQ # to 5.3.1, and I'll copy those over to the new sheet once I get it up.

[Tomdidiot]

Where are the annals?

[davedave]

At castle black.
*Hurr durr*

[istaril]

Thanks for the reminder, Tagore! 5.3.1 is now up, and 5.2 is archived (and redirects). If the link to 5.3.1 doesn't work, be sure to clear your cache.

[alquimista]

Hi!

 

I modified the restircted card of my deck in the worlds. It was Naval Escort, not Bane

[Ratatoskr]

Info for the OCTGN 2014 fall tourney added to the 5.2 version.

[istaril]

Worlds data is up!

... sort of. I have the full House and Standings, but not agendas/restricteds, which will have to wait until Monday to obtain from FFG. 

 

Still, if you can fill in those you remember/those of your opponent's, it should make my job on Monday much easier.

[istaril]

For no reason I can discern, all my figure legends are gone. This looks more like a bug than vandalism, but I haven't been able to fix it in my brief attempt today. Will keep trying.