Would be a shame if he was dead in the water on arrival. So far FFG have done pretty well in having Warlords be playable at time of release. A fair number of people thought Ragnar wouldn't work either, and he was solid, same, same with Ku'gath and with Aun'shi. None of these are better than their base warlords, but every one of them can build viable T1 decks. We're already looking at a situation where people are saying Zogwort doesn't work, but I have the feeling we can trust FFG to have each Warlord be decently playable at time of release.
On the other hand, sometimes they do get it wrong: in AGOT, for example, there have been a lot of funky trait-based decks that FFG pushed at us which never reached the threshold of competitiveness. This Warlord might be the start of the same for Conquest.
Besides, there are subtle edges that Urien has over Kith. While 8 cards instead of 7 on the starting hand takes us from 37% to 41% hit rate on a desired 3x on opening hand (or 61% to 64% after mulligan), it does much funkier things to the maths of getting a deploy hand of 5 deploy actions rather than 4, or 4 rather than 3 (say we're looking at a 7 or 8 card pull from a 50 card deck that has 20 cards that cost 1 or less, the chance of getting 4 or more of those cards goes from 27% to 40%). Also, Urien's ability is completely non-dependent on his location or status, so he can be moved to whatever planet suits command best without worrying about combat effect, and he can continue to contribute his ability even if HQ exhausted. So far, no other warlord has that degree of freedom in their special ability text, and that is a subtle benefit that cannot be disregarded.
In a way, I'm reminded a lot of the AGOT assessments of House of Dreams, where that agenda card looked like incredible economic value on paper, but actually had a devestating effect on setup economy. I think the 8 cards instead of 7 and the presence of a 0-cost event that can be dropped in the action phase will lead to a deckshape that is going to provide significantly more deploy turns than the kith counterpart on the first turn, and thus provide stronger opportunities for cards like Ssylth Merc, and for command strength in general. In short, I expect Urien to outperform Kith in command. Nine cards I am sure I want to include in his deck are 3 x Ssylth, 3 x Rogue Trader, 3 x Void Pirate.
My hope is that while Urien will look totally different to Kith in play, he'll still be viable one way or the other.