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Black Sails
Submitted
Darksbane
, Feb 01 2013 10:26 PM | Last updated Feb 06 2013 07:33 PM
Black SailsType: Agenda House: Neutral Game Text: When you reveal Black Sails as your agenda, shuffle your deck and cut it into 2 stacks. Then, the opponent to your left chooses one stack to be The Hold, which is out of play. The other stack is your draw deck. Response: After you win a challenge in which you had at least 1 [Naval] attacker, choose 1 card from The Hold. At the end of the phase, add it to your hand. (Limit once per phase.) Number: 18 Set: RotK Quantity: 3 Illustrator: |
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61 Comments
Will be interesting to see what Greyjoy will get to support this theme.
If you have three copies of a card, and your hold is about 30 cards you are pretty much guaranteed to have a copy of the card you want in your hold.
I suppose the difference here is that you have to pay to to put these in play and there is a small chance all three of those cards are in your deck.
Rickon Stark (MotA)
oops, good point.
DubiousYak: there is a little gap in your logic. When you half your deck the chances wont increase for having a copy in your hold. It will stay all the same, since you are halfing it randomly, so it will be the same exact percent chance for a card to finish in the hold or to finish in your deck. Or do you have some methods to control fate?
Dubious Yak is counting on probability. If he runs 3 copies of a card, and cuts his deck in half, at least 1 copy should end up in the hold.
JcWamma: Why 3 in 4?
But what I was arguing about that you cant say something like "at least 1 copy should end up in the hold". This card is a super new idea, great game effect, but you cant build a deck around it. You wont have certanity, all of your ideas can go to waste, thanks to an unfortunte shuffle.
Using this agenda will always give you card advantage (assuming your opponents uses a different agenda
Beyond that, many times all that matters is the right type of card, when the board is empty and both players are top decking, pulling any character out of your hold is good.
Assuming a 60 card deck, you have a 30/60 chance for the first card to be in the hold. If the first card is in the hold, its a 29/59 chance the second one is and a 28/58 chance for the 3rd one. The 3 positinos of the cards are dependant surely.
So the probability is 30/60 x 29/59 x 28/58 = 0.1186 (4 dp).
JCWamma got 3/4 for the probability of having one in both decks by saying the probability of all cards in the hold = 1/8, as does the probability of all cards in the deck. 1 - 1/8 - 1/8 = 3/4.
Being more accurate from above, the probability of at least 1 in the deck and hold is actually 0.7627 (4dp) - slightly more than 3/4.
A 76% chance the card you need for a combo is still really dang good.
It is a much better chance than the card will be drawn next round.
Add that to the likelihood the card is in your initial hand + draw back up to 7, and this really looks like it is the Shagga players agenda of choice.
Why does the Hold have 76% to have to card, and why does your simple deck have only 24% chance to have the much desired card? You are cutting it half .... randomly.
If you are playing with 3 copies of a card you will find 0-3 in your hold, and 0-3 in your original deck. Its like Schrödinger's cat
Anyway the card should be great fun to play!