Data Dealer - Chaos Vs Kate

Android: Netrunner strikes me as a bit like the wild west right now (why is that always the go to analogy for something being wide open? Writers are lazy I guess). A game still in its infancy with a card pool growing slowly but surely. There's a lot of theorycrafting going on and while there certainly have been tournaments to put things to practice, people's opinions are often only as valid as their local meta extends. It's interesting then to go online and see what everyone else is doing. This won't last forever (hi regionals!), but it's fun right now.

An interesting example of this happened in my area. See, we were pretty much in universal agreement that Kate was the better of the two Shaper identities. You can imagine my suprise then to find out that one of the few things the community at large agrees on (which is to say, at least 51%) is that Chaos Theory is in fact superior. I was at a loss. Had I just been the victim of group-think, where since the group had decided Kate was better it was just taken as fact? Sure the advantage of a smaller deck is obvious, but it couldn't have that much of an effect, could it? Best, I thought, to just settle it top to bottom.

First thing to compare is link strength. Kate is the clear winner here as the only time more link is bad is when the Corp has Net Police out. While that's not nothing, it doesn't seem like enough to argue 0 link strength is an advantage. Of course, before A Study in Static was printed, the value of link strength was directly connected to how much trace was ran in your local meta. Now, with the printing of Underwold Contact, starting at 1 link is huge as it allows your Underworld Contacts to be turned on by any link bonus. Given all that, I'm awarding the point to Kate here.

Next up is the ability. Kate's discount will likely be worth 5-10 credits over the course of a game. Chaos Theory on the other hand saves you some deck slots by making it so you can install your full program suite (often 3 breakers and Magnum Opus) without any additional modifier. While never having to Sophie's Choice your programs is pretty sweet, almost every Shaper deck I've ever seen (Chaos Theory included) runs some form of memory bonus, which kind of obviates the need for a passive bonus (though not entirely, you do still have to draw the cards). The abilities do end up being kind of a wash though, because Shaper gets to run 3x Personal Workshop, which is not exactly synergistic with Kate's ability. This will really depend on play style, Chaos Theory's ability is better early game, Kate's is better the longer the game goes giving you more install chances. While I personally prefer Kate here, I'm awarding no points due to no clear advantage.

This brings us the lightning round, worth enough to render all previous points moot. Deck size. Card gamers are taught to keep their decks as small as possible to maximize their chances of drawing the cards they need. Run one card over and you are mocked! "But how much can it really matter?" You say. Well let's see.

In a 45 card deck the odds of drawing a card that you have 3, 2 and 1 of over the course of 5/10/15 cards are (all numbers courtesy of http://deckulator.appspot.com):

3x 30.4/53.9/71.4
2x 21.2/39.9/56.1
1x 11.1/22.2/33.3

In a 40 card deck the odds are:

3x 33.8/58.9/76.7
2x 23.7/44.2/61.5
1x 12.5/25.0/37.5

Chaos Theory comes out ahead, even if it's not by a lot. How much extra work does Kate have to do even out? Let's look at the odds for 6/12/17 cards:

3x 35.6/61.6/76.9
2x 25.2/46.7/61.8
1x 13.3/26.7/37.8

So to keep up with Chaos Theory, Kate has to draw approximently two extra cards. The flipside of the deck size argument is that Kate does get to add five extra cards (5x memory boosters!). As someone who has a hard enough time narrowing down to 45 cards this is an easy decision, since the percentages are just not that different. That said, much like the abilities, this comes down to play style. If your goal is to get a certain set of cards out by any means necessary, this is really a no-brainer. Since Chaos Theory could run a 45 card deck, this is strictly upside, point has to go to her.

Chaos Theory ends up winning due to the lightning round bonus, but really this was too close to say one identity is clearly superior to the other. As of right now I think it just comes down to play style. I'd rather run a slower deck making use of Underworld Contact. Which brings me back to the start of this. The better identity is the one best suited to your playstyle and local meta.