Root Cause - Economy, Part 2

Root Cause is a series of bi-weekly Android: Netrunner articles about deck building, strategy and tactical decision, for new and mid-level Anarch players. You can find the first part of this article here.

In my last article, I introduced my method of how to build a good deck economy. Making the expected net income of drawing one card to be equal to the opportunity cost of drawing a card (1 credit) allows you to be constantly drawing cards along the game without running out of money, and it doesn't hurt you if you need to take credits from the bank, granting you economical stability.

While this method might be very helpful for players that are having problems with their economy, it has its limitations, like any mathematical model. There are cards or situations that can't be modeled properly, like conditional economy cards, recurring credits and extra draws. But there are some things that you can do to, at least, to estimate the net income of cards like these. Many mathematical models use premises, assumptions, as a way to simplify the calculation, and it will be no different here.

I think I should warn you that this article will have a little more math than the last one. I believe that these calculations can be done with high school math, but they would be a lot easier if you were familiar with statistics. If you have problems, you might want ask a friend for a help, or leave a commentary. I’ll try my best to explain anything that’s not clear.

One of the examples I presented last time was my version of Whizzard credit denial deck. Some people were satisfied by my statement that Account Siphon has a net income of 13 credits, and I think it is far to say that I was wrong by assuming that Account Siphon will always be a “full hit”. People ice their HQ up, people spend their credits, etc. This time, I’ll present how I think that my deck should be properly evaluated.

Case Study: My Whizzard Deck Again

Let's start with the things you already know: 3 copies of Armitage Codebusting (+3 each), 3 copies of Liberated Account (+4 each) and 2 copies of Sure Gamble (+2 each) sum 29 net income. By now, we'll forget about Account Siphon and will continue with Cyberfeeder (Core). As I said, Cyberfeeder requires us to make some premises to calculate its net income. These are the ones I'll make:

- Cyberfeeder gives me 1 credit per virus card in my deck;
- I'll play all my virus programs every match;
- I'll draw 1 card per turn;
- Games won't last more than 10 turns.

You can read premises 1 and 2 like "for every virus card in my deck that I do not draw in a match, I'll use Cyberfeeder to run once". For instance, my Whizzard deck has 7 virus cards, so I'm assuming that I'll use Cyberfeeder, in average, 7 times per game. Premises 3 and 4 will be used to ponder the amount of uses by the odds of drawing Cyberfeeder. In my case, I can draw Cyberfeeder up to the 4th turn and I'll still be able to use it 7 times, but if I draw it on the 5th turn, I'll only be able to use it 6 times; in the 6th turn, 5 uses, and it goes that way until the 10th turn, when the game ends. The logic here is:

- If I'll draw a Cyberfeeder in my first 9 cards (up to the 4th turn) 49,7% of the time, and;
- If Cyberfeeder gives me 7 credits if I use it up to the 4th turn;
- Then Cyberfeeder has a net income of 3 credits 49,7% of the time.

Doing the math for the 1st, 2nd ... 6th turn, I'll have the average net income of Cyberfeeder: 1.6 credits each. Spinal Modem is basically the same thing (in my case, they give me 3.3 credits net income each). Now I have a 40.4 net income (29 + 3*1.6 + 2*3.3) for my deck. I'm missing 4.6 credits to fit my 1 net income per card goal, and I still have 2 copies of Account Siphon. Is it reliable to assume that Account Siphon net income is 2.3 credits each? Sounds nice for me. In your deck, the answer is up to you.

Diesel gives you flames.

Another thing to have in mind is how fast you draw cards. I'm a big fan of Wyldside (Core), and I have seen so many people suggesting how to evaluate it, that I think it is my turn to try. Drawing cards doesn't give you credits by itself, it reduces the amount of time it takes for you to draw your economy cards, and that's how it affects the average net income of your deck.

Again, the premises:
- Drawing my opening hand of 5 cards costs me 5 clicks;
- I'll draw my entire deck when I play;

The main idea behind the math here is that the more cards you draw per click, the smaller your opportunity cost of drawing a card. I'll break down the logical path just like I made before, because I believe that explaning with examples makes it more clear:

-Using 2 copies, I have 21,2% chance of having a Wyldside in my opening hand;
- Wyldside costs me 5 credits (draw, play and pay);
- Wyldside allows me to draw my entire deck in 24 clicks;
- In 21,2% of the games, the opportunity cost of drawing my entire deck is 5 credits + 24 clicks;
- In 21,2% of the games, the opportunity cost of drawing my entire deck is 29 credits;
- In 21,2% of the games, the opportunity cost of drawing a card is 1/29 credits (or 0.034 credits, if you don't like fractions).

For Cyberfeeder, I made the math for every possible turn after the first one. It would take me forever to do it for Wyldside, so I can skip some numbers, and do it for every 5 or 10 draws. The math won't be accurate, but it will give a smaller number, so my only risk here is to be too rich. That's a chance that I'm willing to take in order to save the time and stress that would be required to get the precise number. Once again, in your deck, it is up to you how much accuracy you want in your numbers.

To teach is to learn twice.

I'm aware that this method also ignores a lot of important economic issues, like liquidity and cost curve. I have been discussing for a while about how to use the concept of internal rate of return as a method to measure the economy cards liquidity, but this is not an obvious and simple thing to calculate, so I won't talk about this now. Cost curve is also very complicated in Android: Netrunner, because - while we can calculate the expected cost of playing the cards in our decks - we can't possibly know how much credits we'll spend during our runs.

I think it should be said that I’m not a mathematician, and neither the “owner of the truth”. I’m aware that there are Android: Netrunner players more skilled with numbers than me, and these people might know some better methods to calculate the things that I'm showing you, or even the things that I’m saying that can’t be calculated. If you’re one of those people, please, show up. I’m not saying that as a challenge, I’m saying as an invitation.

There are a lot of things that we don’t know in Android: Netrunner, and (in my opinion) we don’t have enough people trying to figure those things out. I love to play the game, but I love to study it too: to look at a champion’s deck list that doesn't seem to be good and try to understand how that deck can possibly work, how it doesn’t go out of money/icebreaker/pieces of ice, how it keeps the pressure during the entire game, etc., and I know I’m not alone.

My advice for this week is not for new players, but for experienced ones for: sharing knowledge is good for everybody. Trying to explain your point of view for a person you don’t know requires you to think about your opinion, and that often leads you to change of mind. I learned a lot with myself when writing these articles, and I’m glad it happened.

I won't promise you a third part of these economy articles. I can assure you that the next article won’t be about economy, but I might talk about it again later, maybe in a future series of articles after Root Cause. I guess time will tell.

João “Hraklea” Almeida is a brazilian amateur card game player with almost 15 years of experience. Currently playing only Android: Netrunner, and saving his money to play in the next season of regional championship tournaments. Leaving the country is not that cheap.