The Things I Do For Win - Initiative, It Matters

Initiative on plots was largely overlooked until this AGOT tourney season. The advent of higher numbers and Bay of Ice has brought more consideration. Deciding whether to go first or second fluctuates over the course of a game provided you even get the choice. Seizing the initiative late can mean the difference between winning and losing. Part of making the correct decision boils down to know what you deck can do and what it wants to do.

Aggro Versus Control Decision Tree
These two decks approach initiative from opposite directions. Aggro is hyper aggressive and control plays defense until it locks down the board. I’m purposely ignoring the last type of deck; combo. Deciding whether to go first or second is not really relevant; identify the key cards and destroy them. Going first to disrupt their combo sometime before it goes off can work, but, it depends on the combo.

Aggro
Aggro decks want to create first strike capabilities. Going first lets you kill off your opponent’s characters first, therefore reducing their options on their turn. Targeted kill cards like Die by the Sword (LoW) and two claim plots populate these decks to further remove options. To keep the pressure on you usually need to overextend to make sure you have strength superiority. As soon as you lose the strength advantage an aggro deck folds.

Going first also lets you set the pace of the game. To keep you from tearing up hands and characters your opponent must at least match your strength in play. If they want any type of retaliation even more characters and resources must be played on top of what you just added to the field.

The disadvantage of going first is you don’t know what your opponent is going to drop during their marshalling phase. Your plans are forgotten if they play bigger dudes or kneel out your board. Going first is working with unknown or imperfect game state information.

Control
Control decks rely on character manipulation to restrict menaces. The more knowledge you have about your opponents plans the better. Going second allows you to identify any new threats hitting board and lets you plan accordingly. Locking down Maester Luwin (FtC) seems like a great play until The Conclave (CbtC) shows up. It also gives you the distinct edge in seeing how much strength you need on the board to protect yourself. A general plan is to always go second with a control deck.

The disadvantages to going second are you don’t get to trigger your effects first and if you want to defend you will need to kneel characters that could have attacked. The order of triggers becomes very important in close games. Kneeling characters to defend keeps you from gaining ground and can lead you to overextending to win challenges.

How Do You Decide?
Going first allows more options. Imagine a standing character as a resource. Ergo, the more standing characters you possess the more resources you have at your disposal. Ties go the attacker so in effect they garner plus one strength. Military challenges, bounce, and kill effects reduce your opponent’s resources.

However, to find the correct answer you need to look holistically at the board and know what’s in your deck. After identifying what type of deck you are facing it becomes a fierce battle to win initiative to exploit their weakness. Forcing your opponent into plays hampers their options. Ideally you want to draw out their reset plots as early as you can. The following is a general matrix:

You Opponent First or Second?
Aggro Aggro Go first
Aggro Control Go Second
Control Control Go First
Control Aggro Go Second

Additional Guidelines
This system isn’t perfect. It’s only to be used as a starting point. Other considerations are non-kneelers/standing effects, board position, and claim.

Non-Kneelers/Standing Effects
Characters that serve up beatings and are still available for defense want to go first, especially if you can get multiple challenges from one card. Cards like The Red Viper (PotS), Cersei Lannister (LotR), and anything with vigilant chew up defenses with minimal expenditure on your part.

The opposite is true for non-kneelers on defense. Going second is key to get the most bang for your buck. Opponents use more characters attacking to try and force through a win while you can hang back and let the game come to you during your challenges. An example is Northern Infantry (SA). The reason defending non-kneelers are less desirable are keywords can circumvent the barricade. It’s nominal adage but, attacking is better than defending.

Vengeful allows you to go first or second comfortably. I prefer going first with vengeful characters to limit my opponent’s choices. In a sense you are letting them pick their poison before you shut the door. Second is fine as long as you let them win one challenge.

When facing these problem characters apply the reverse logic. Characters that don’t kneel often cost more because of their ability. Getting them to kneel out of sequence nullifies their text. Go first against non-kneeling attackers and second against non-kneeling defenders.

Board Position
Paying attention to the power count changes the thought process. Early game it’s more important hammer at weaknesses. Late game it’s better to close out as quickly as you can when the game is close.

Untenable situations arise where you cannot hope punch through an attack due to less strength. Go second. You’re hoping enough characters get knelt to let you win during your turn.

During aggro versus aggro if you are outpacing your opponent in character strength or have saves available choose to go second. This allows you to put enough strength on the board to defend the challenges you want and counterattack without playing all of your characters in hand. Sometimes the best offense is a good defense.

Control decks often have effects in all phases of the game starting with pre-plot. Go first when you have control during the whole marshalling and challenge phase. Neutralizing a character or two unexpectedly after a defender or two have been declared protects your board. Sometimes the best defense is a good offense.

Claim
Winning high claim challenges depletes opposing resources. It makes sense to strike first to minimize possible choices, even in control decks. If you have higher claim than your opponent go after them. When facing higher claim it’s still a good idea to go first mitigating the counterattack.

If you get into the enviable position of playing against a zero claim plot allow your opponent to go first and let every challenge go unopposed if you don’t have extra characters. Doing so maximizes your claim’s effectiveness during your turn. Odds are this is during a Valar Morghulis turn. Plan a claim two and scoop up the unopposed power as well. Note, only go second if it’s not going to lose you the game.

Initiative Boosters
To ensure you keep the choice in your hands there are several options available. The easiest is running high initiative plots. Currently there are 38 plots with initiative five or higher. Not all of them are useful but there are enough to fit most styles of decks. I’ve provided a list of the non-plot enhancers:

Agenda
Knights of the Hollow Hill (MotM) 2 out of 5 gold hands


Character
Feuding Clanswoman (LotR) 2 out of 5 gold hands
The Sparr (APS) 4 out of 5 gold hands
Vanguard Lancer (KotStorm) 4 out of 5 gold hands
Overzealous Scout (BoRF) 1 out of 5 gold hands

Location
Kingsroad Fiefdom (QoD) 3 out of 5 gold hands
Karhold Rookery (CbtC) 4 out of 5 gold hands
Bay of Ice (KotS) 5 out of 5 gold hands

Attachment
Burned and Pillaged (FtC) 4 out of 5 gold hands

Event
Ahead of the Tide (WotN) 2 out of 5 gold hands

Honorable Plot Mentions
Retaliation! (ASoSilence) makes you the second player. Control decks love a claim two with zero down side. Don’t be afraid of this plot in aggro decks either. It helps lock down going second versus a control deck.

Take Them by Surprise (LoW) all but ensures going first with an 11 initiative. This can be incredibly important to aggro decks stretching for their last power.

Final Word of Advice
The best way to judge whether you should go first or second is knowing your deck inside and out. There will come a time when you are top decking for answers. If you know you have nine kneel effects left in your deck feel comfortable going second. It may not hit but it will give you a chance to win. And any chance is better than none at all.

True Story
I won a top eight game because I choose to go first against a Martel Knights of the Hollow Hill control deck. Normally this is a terrible choice with a Stark Maesters aggro deck but I had discarded a Westeros Bleeds (Core) the turn before and was worried he had drawn another. I needed the first action during dominance to blank The Red Keep before he could use it. It won me the game. If I had gone second my considerable board advantage would have been cleared and I more than likely go down in defeat.