Wars are Won with Quills - Tier Analysis

When people discuss different decks in Game of Thrones they invariably wind up discussing tier rankings. But what exactly does it mean to say that a deck is Tier 1, or Tier 1.5, or Tier 2? Do we base this solely upon tournament results, or is there some element of objective measure we could use to determine what makes a deck fall into these tiers? I’m of the opinion that we can get a pretty good read on where a deck fits in by ranking their capabilities in three key areas of AGoT -- Power Rush, Draw, and Control. Let’s look at each:

Power Rush: This refers to how aggressively the deck can close the game out if your opponent is unable to stop you, which generally is a reflection of how much additional power grab capabilities the deck possesses. Renown is the most straightforward method of achieving this, which goes hand-in-hand with decks designed to push through challenges. It’s not the only way to achieve this though, as this would also cover methods like The Siege of Winterfell (LoW) and other plots and effects that greatly accelerate power grab. The game rules only provide for 4 regular power to be obtained per turn (3 unopposed challenges and dominance), so without cards that specifically grab extra power you’re looking at least at a 4-5 turn game.

Draw: This refers to how well a deck can maintain card advantage. Card advantage isn’t just about having more cards in hand than the opponent, it also includes having more efficient cards and having the right cards at the right time. The most straightforward way to achieve this is simply to draw a lot of cards, as the more you draw the more likely you’ll have the right cards in hand when you need them. However, search effects can provide significant card advantage (virtual card advantage is a term sometimes used to describe this) simply by getting straight to the most needed card. Having cards that trade many-for-one is another significant way to achieve this - a Westeros Bleeds (Core) in the right situation can easily be a single card that trades for 4+ cards of your opponent’s. The Maester’s Path was almost the ultimate example of this as it effectively let you draw up to 3 extra cards of your choice each turn.

Control: Plain and simply, this refers to your ability to prevent the opponent from doing whatever it is they are trying to do. This may mean stopping them from winning a challenge, or from activating some effect, or from playing something you don’t want to see played. It also includes stopping them from stopping you - a Paper Shield (QoD) to counter their Paper Shield, or perhaps a bunch of saves to keep your guys on the table through a Valar Morghulis (Core).

These are, from a deckbuilding perspective, the main pillars of AGoT decks.

"But wait a minute," you might be wondering, "What about Aggro? Where does that fit in?" To be very clear, Rush is not synonymous with Aggro in AGoT, because in AGoT simply being good at winning challenges doesn't directly or even necessarily win you the game. Aggro can be used to both support Rush (such as winning lots of challenges with Renown characters) or with high-claim plots and powerful events that trigger off of winning challenges as act as a form of Control. Often times some of the best decks merge the two together and use Aggro as the base theme to fuel both the Rush and Control elements of the deck.

What makes a deck good and what the challenge is for deck-builders is in figuring out how to combine these pillars without detracting from them. How well you accomplish that determines whether your deck is a Tier 1, Tier 1.5, or Tier 2 deck.


Tier 2 Decks
These decks tend to only be solidly good at doing one of the pillars, and their schtick is often too easily countered by decks that can do more.

Rush Alone: I’m sure you’ve probably come across a Power Rush deck that seems to have no real plan for how to deal with Valar Morghulis (Core). Toss a bunch of power grab cards and renown and buffs together and you wind up with a deck that totally could win the game in within 1-3 turns - in a vacuum at least.

Draw Alone: Is there such a thing as too much card advantage? If it’s unfocused on what exactly the deck is trying to do with all those cards, then yes. A trap people sometimes fall into is to build a deck that never seems to run out of things to do and yet accomplishes nothing.

Control Alone: These decks can totally stall the game out for a few turns which provide the appearance that they’re in control of things. However, they either run out of cards before they can even come close to winning or their opponent finally gets enough resources on the board to brute force their way through the control elements. Once that happens, they have no real answers left and fold quickly.


Tier 1.5
These are decks that effectively combine two out of the three pillars. Some can do all three at once, but generally with some caveats and only moderate efficiency.

Rush + Draw: This can be a very tough combination to beat - power grab that just doesn't let up. The only flaw these decks have is that to achieve this they’ve given up on having much of anything to deal with what the opponent is doing, which means a lot of winning comes down to whether or not the opponent’s deck can either perform faster or has some really strong ability to lock the board down that you simply have no answer for.

Rush + Control: These are scary decks. It’s their game to lose, because if they draw the right combination of cards they’ll keep you from doing anything just long enough for them to close out the game. It’s a race with themselves to not run out either their power grabbing cards or their saves/cancels before they can zip up to 15 power.

Draw + Control: These are frustrating decks that are designed to win the game by default - because if they can make it impossible for you to win the game, they figure they’ll win instead, at least eventually. The problem is twofold: 1) In a tournament situation there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to be at the higher power total before time is called, even if their victory might be inevitable and 2) All it takes is one slip-up to lose control of the game - the longer the game lasts the more opportunities and resources the opponent has to break your control.

Rush + Draw + Control (Inefficiently) - Some decks try to do it all and moderately succeed. These are the decks that are trying to be Tier 1 but the cards at their disposal just aren't as efficient as what the Tier 1 decks are using. Often times these are the decks waiting on the sidelines for either some new cards or new FAQ to either bolster their decklists or knock the existing Tier 1 decks down a peg, which redefines the upper bounds for what “efficient” really means.


Tier 1
These are the decks that, when available, are dominant forces at tournaments and tend to make up a majority of the cut into Top 16. Consistency is on their side, and these are the decks whose existence usually impacts FFG’s FAQs and game-balancing decisions. Power ranking is relative, though, so please note that in a meta that lacks any true Tier 1 decks (as defined below) you’ll often see Tier 1.5 decks get referred to as Tier 1. This is correct to a point, but a good gauge as to whether this is the case is if the common consensus is that there are more than 2-3 “Tier 1” decks at any given time.


Rush + Draw + Control: These decks can do everything well. They’ve got enough Draw to consistently balance out the Rush and Control elements so they can pull off their game plan every game. They’ve got enough Control to ensure that they can buy at least a couple turns where their plans aren’t being interrupted by their opponent. And they’ve got enough Rush that those couple turns are all it takes to win. In their heyday this was what made Martell The Red Viper (PotS) decks, The Maester’s Path decks, and Greyjoy The Long Voyage (TPoL) so damn good. With the current Restricted list and card pool, the Quentyn Martell (VD) decks with their plethora of efficient Renown characters, massive card draw off The Viper's Bannermen (PotS), and strong control elements off powerhouse cards like Ghaston Grey (FtC), He Calls It Thinking, and Choosing the Spear (AJE) fit this category and their rampant success at the recent Gencon Joust should be of no surprise.

Every house for the most part has a major theme and minor theme tied into the pillars.

Greyjoy:
Major: Rush
Minor: Control

Lannister:
Major: Draw
Minor: Control

Martell:
Major: Control
Minor: Draw

Targaryen:
Major: Control
Minor: Rush

Baratheon:
Major: Rush
Minor: Nothing (although if they keep up the recursion aspect of recent packs I’d update this to Draw)

Stark:
Moderate ability at all three

Analyzing the list, the houses for the most part seem like they are geared for making Tier 1.5 decks. So where do the Tier 1 decks come from then? Back in the CCG days this was easily achieved by running Treaties and fusing together two houses with different Major themes and the third theme covered as a Minor by at least one of the houses, pretty much resulting in almost a cookie-cutter recipe for a Tier 1-style deck. Now with the LCG this happens when FFG prints cards that expand houses beyond their listed strengths, thereby filling in the blank. Pairing the new capabilities with what the house already excelled at doing often results in very strong, very consistent builds. Examples are when they give Targaryen or Greyjoy access to strong Draw capabilities or Martell access to Rush, or simply give Stark too many efficient cards.

Some examples:

• The Maester's Path (GotC) which single-handedly gave Targ, GJ, and Martell easy access to exactly what they most wanted (Targ and GJ loved the Draw aspect and Martell loved the efficient Rush given by The Conclave (CbtC) , especially when paired with To The Spears! (PotS)).
• Stark when they had the all-around efficiency provided by Kings of Winter (TWoW) , Meera Reed (TftH), and No Quarter (TBC).
• The impact of The Long Voyage (TPoL) and Negotiations at the Great Sept (TPoL) giving efficient Draw to every house.
• Where Martell Quentyn Charagenda is now, with Martell’s already strong Control and Draw elements being able to run a double-digit count of Renown characters with standing/non-kneeling effects without sacrificing much of anything.

The existence of does-it-all Tier 1 decks is generally a net negative for the metagame as a whole, because it has the effect of shrinking the variety in the competitive scene, excludes the usage of many otherwise interesting cards, and over time can cause the environment to grow stale. Tier 1 is the holy grail that deckbuilders should strive for, but I think it’s better and more interesting if it’s not something that gets achieved all that often.