Valar Morghulis at Red Saturday XII

The Thrones community anticipates the imminent release of Valar Morghulis in the next chapter pack. A perusal of the various fan sites reveals many opinions in support of and opposition to the release of this card, but few in-depth posts on the impact of the card to the environment. One of the most analytical and well-reasoned arguments I have encountered is authored by Ire in an article on Card Game DB. Ire’s central argument, supported by contributors who played competitively as far back as the CCG era, is that while many of us 1.0 veterans (I’ve played since 2005) recall the glory days of Thrones that coincided with the existence of Valar, the plot was less ubiquitous than memory would have us believe and less impactful for much of the time it was playable. While it is not explicitly stated, the suggestion is that Valar may have a smaller impact on the current 2.0 metagame than 1.0 veterans would have you believe. I disagree, and I’m looking forward to testing my hypothesis at the 12^th annual Red Saturday tournament in NYC on November 26.

The introduction of Valar will fundamentally alter the metagame, and I hope add a new layer of strategy. To be sure, I agree with much of the logic presented in Ire’s article, and many of its conclusions. A “save heavy” environment will result in less Valar, locations (especially economy) will become more important, and non-terminal attachments will become more powerful. However, there are some important themes that I think Ire and the contributors have overlooked.

First, I remember the history of the LCG a little differently. Valar was in many, if not most, of the competitive decks that won tournaments since its release. Not unlike today, Lannister dominated the environment the first 1.5 years of the LCG. The inclusion of Golden Tooth Mines in the 1.0 Core Set, combined with Castellan of the Rock in the first cycle and cost-efficient characters that supplemented the resource curve, gave Lanni a huge advantage. Valar was important both in overcoming that deck, and in leveraging the powerful Lanni cards. Valar was the go-to plot to clear the board on round 2 or 3 if the opponent had marshaled a Castellan—players gladly revealed Valar to kill a single character, such was the power level of the Castellan. Conversely, Lanni players could use Valar to thin the board and then marshal a Castellan to gain board dominance. This was especially effective with one (and better with two) Golden Tooth Mines in play to give the Lanni player the edge in a long game. When Lanni’s dominance began to wane following Greg Atkinson’s win at Worlds with Greyjoy, Valar remained a staple in Greyjoy and in the many control decks that followed. (As Ire’s article notes, aggro decks tend to find less value in Valar, but still often ran it as a 7^th plot that players could use as a contingency.)

Players may wonder “how could Valar be both an anti-Lanni card and a card that maintains Lanni’s dominance?” The answer: Unlike most other cards in Thrones, Valar was less intrinsically aligned with a particular card mechanic or card combination, and more dependent on timing and the strategic setup of the plot multiple rounds in advance. Games were won or lost not on whether one or both players had Valar in the plot deck, but rather the timing of when the first and second Valars were played during the game. As Ire suggests, there were many players who attempted to leverage the strength of Valar by packing saves in their decks, but more often than not Valar was used truly as a reset both defensively and offensively, and to use Valar effectively required skill.

Even if I am right that Valar was impactful for most of the 1.0 game, many would argue that 2.0 will be different. Certainly, the expanded gold curve with more expensive characters (it was rare to see a player spend more than 4 gold for a character in 1.0) and introduction of reserve as a mechanic (1.0 did not require players to discard cards during taxation) makes the 2.0 reprint of Valar a less flexible plot than it was in its original incarnation. Given the power of the effect, I strongly suspect this is wrong. If Valar was worthwhile to kill a single character in 1.0, I expect it will be just as potent in 2.0, albeit with a higher skill cap and a lower “bottom” (higher variance in its impact).

Moreover, Valar will be fun. With any new neutral card that is heavily skill-dependent, there is a learning curve. This will not be an off-the-shelf solution for decks lacking removal, nor will it be always best used as a last resort. As players learn how to use the newest version of this plot, I believe we will come to appreciate the depth the plot offers as games become more strategic. The game will become less automatic and less predictable (while avoiding the randomness of Ser Gregor and The Tickler).

The Red Saturday tournament has a long tradition of unearthing new deck lists and ideas, and I hope to see many players experimenting with Valar at the event. Prior to 2013 (if I remember correctly), the Thrones World Championship was held at GenCon. The first Days of Ice & Fire event was held in 2011 (I think) around the time that Worlds is held now, but it was smaller and more niche. Red Saturday, then called “Black Friday” and held the day after the US Thanksgiving holiday, was one of the key tournaments held long enough after GenCon to allow for the introduction of new cards. With the shift of Worlds to November, Red Saturday competitors were encouraged to avoid net-decking, and as a result we often saw many new and creative builds. This year, Red Saturday will be the first major event to allow cards from There Is My Claim. I expect it to be a fun event with much variety in deck lists. (Note: The tourney organizers have decided to allow proxies in the event the chapter pack is not available at the store on the day of the event.)

It may be that in the end I am proven wrong, and that Valar is more niche, perhaps run competitively only in Greyjoy. If that is the case, I will be truly surprised. More likely, there is an entrepreneurial player out there who will find a way to leverage the full power of this plot. When I see that person, I’ll buy her or him a drink, and we’ll discuss the many ways in which Valar has changed this game for the better.